In a few days it will be Tuesday, so of course it is a Super Tuesday Primary day. This Tuesday is different. If one of the candidates wins Ohio and Florida on the Republican side, they just might win the nomination.
TRUMP LEADS IN FLORIDA
As of today, Donald Trump leads in all the recent polls. In fact, Sir Donald leads by 20 points plus over Marco Rubio. If Rubio doesn’t carry his home state, his campaign is over. Marco has cut the margin in half during the past week, but it remains to be seen if he can get over the hump and actually win. I think Marco’s last stand will be Tuesday. After that, if he doesn’t win, and I think he won’t, Rubio will be out of the race. His financing will dry up so it will be impossible to carry on. Senator Ted Cruz and former Congressman and current Ohio Governor John Kasich are not factors to win the winner-take-all state. There is a movement underway by the “establishment” to try to shift the Cruz and Kasich supporters to Rubio in an effort to deny Trump the delegates from this important state. Look for Trump to win Florida big.
Over on the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton is ahead in Florida by 27 or 28 points. Bernie Sanders is far behind at 34% support.
KASICH FIGHTS FOR OHIO
John Kasich and Donald Trump are within the margin of error in the Buckeye State. John Kasich carries a slight lead in the latest polls, leading Donald Trump 39 to 33%. Another poll by CBS News has the two candidates in a tie. Rubio’s people have indicated his supporters should shift their allegiance to Kasich in the state. Marco is spending all his time and money in his home state of Florida. Ted Cruz seems to be spending his time and energy elsewhere. If Kasich wins his home state, his campaign will create new energy, especially if Rubio fails in Florida. If Kasich were to lose his home state, he has said he would withdraw from the race.
Our Democrat friends find Hillary leading Bernie Sanders by 20 points, 58% to 38%.
DONALD TRUMP AND THE PROTESTS
Friday evening at a Trump rally in Chicago, demonstrators disrupted a Trump rally. The rally had to cancelled because the protesters had gotten nearly half the admission tickets to the event. Many of the protestors held Bernie Sanders signs. The other Republican candidates (Rubio and Cruz) blame Trump for the demonstrators. Their argument is that Donald Trump set the tone that allowed the demonstrators to label Trump as a hater, a racist, and a trigger happy warrior. This was a similar tactic that was used against Arizona Senator and Republican Presidential candidate Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980. Chicago was also the scene of anti Viet Nam War protests against President Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 Presidential Convention.
Moveon.org has taken credit for the cancellation of the rally. Their website promoted the disruption of Trump activities and encouraged their members to shadow the Trump events to block the GOP candidate from speaking or promoting his positions. Moveon.org has promised to step up their activities from here. Radical domestic terrorist and Obama buddy Bill Ayers was seen outside the event demonstrating and leading others to disrupt the evenings event.
The activities of the demonstrators might actually help Trump gain support. There is feedback suggesting that voters at large, especially among Independents, support Trumps right to say his piece. Their backlash might be what the Trump campaign needs to put them over the top in close states. Tuesday’s vote will tell us a lot. As of now, Trump also leads in Illinois, North Carolina and Missouri. If he can sustain or increase those numbers on Tuesday, then it will show the demonstrators might have actually helped the Trump campaign. If, on the other hand, Trump fails to do as well as expected, then he might finally show a weakness that his enemies have been predicting for over six months.
Hillary also carries comfortable leads in the other states that are voting Tuesday. One interesting thing to note about all the polls is that they are done over the old telephone lines. Young people and many minorities do not have the old phone system, so they are undercounted in these results. That is the reason Bernie Sanders has consistently outperformed his poll numbers in the actual voting.